波浪予測精度を考慮して航海時間の誤差を見積る一方法

概要

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It is very useful for planning the ship's operation schedule if the error of time enroute can be estimated at the departure time. This paper presents a simple method to estimate the error of time enroute at that time. Considering the accuracy of wave prediction and ship's performance curve, the standard deviation of ship's speed is predicted at each point on the given route. Using those standard deviations, the Error Index which is the parameter representing the range of error in time enroute is calculated by recursive equations. To investigate the efficiency of proposed method, numerical simulations are performed. From the result of simulation, it is found that the Error Index is highly correlated with the mean error of time enroute and it is useful to estimate the error of time enroute.
公益社団法人日本航海学会の論文
1982-08-25