感染症流行の数理 : データからモデルまで(<特集>感染症の数理モデル)

概要

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This article reviews researches on the spread of infectious diseases with mathematical models. First, the basic mathematical model of infectious diseases is introduced and its fundamental characteristcs are explained. After reviewing the available data of the incidence of infectious diseases, we describe how these data have been explained by mathematical models including the effect of the vaccination programs. We then move more practical models with increased reality, especially the study of sexually transmitted diseases such as HIV/AVIDS. One of the most important aspects of infectious disease spread is the behavioral heterogeneity of hosts. A population consisting of a small number of very active hosts among majority of rather inactive hosts may show spread pattern different from a uniform population consisting of moderately active hosts even though the two populations have the same average activity. Models of increased reality include the effect of different mixing patterns of sexual partners.
日本応用数理学会の論文
2004-06-25