船舶が遭遇する荒天海象の発現頻度について : 順序統計量のシミュレーション技法の導入とその蓋然的推論

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This paper discusses the frequency of occurrence of extreme waves that a ship encounters within a period of ship lifetime. The estimating algorithm for the frequency consists of two parts, namely, estimating tail's shape of the long-term wave occurrence probability distribution and computer simulation technique of order statistics which was proposed by P.R. Tadikamalla et al. The simple procedure for estimating tail's shape of the long-term distribution is to suppose a functional shape in consideration of the long-term wave statistics information. The method for generating order statistics is to generate a random sample of size n from the corresponding distribution with the supposed tail's shape using Monte Carlo simulation and then sort the sample to obtain the desired order statistics. And the Large Deviation technique adds to the algorithm for the purpose of evaluating allowable deviations of numerical simulation results. On the basis of the Plausible Reasoning, it is confirmed that the present algorithm is useful in predicting extreme waves that a ship encounters at sea.
社団法人日本船舶海洋工学会の論文
2003-03-20