船体強度の信頼性解析 : 第4報 : 初期撓みのある甲板パネル群の逐次崩壊による最終縦強度

概要

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This paper presents a predicting method of failure probability of ultimate collapse under extreme wave load in deck plates (panels) between longitudinals when initial distortions (deflections) of the welded plates are represented by an exponential distribution. Since failure equation is non-linear and non-normal in this case, the advanced level 2 method is applied by introducing equivalent Gauss{an parameters and calculation is performed by numerical successive method. The probability of ultimate collapse is predicted as a total collapse which occurs due to decrease of axial load carrying capacity introduced by successive collapses of weaker panels which lie in a transverse line across the deck. The probability of extreme wave load is derived from binomial distribution of parent Weibull distribution. Similarly the probability of collapsing capability of weaker pane]s is derived from parent distribution of the initial deflection. The obtained safety index P and failure probability P_J show approximately a linear relation with maximum expected stress during ships' Iife and still water stress. They indicate also a large effect of initial deflection. A Iinear approximate method using equivalent Gaussian parameters is proposed in last Chapter.
社団法人日本船舶海洋工学会の論文