船体強度の信頼性解析(第2報) : 検査システムによる信頼性維持の統計理論

概要

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In the previous report, failures of hull structures in ships registered with Nippon Kaiji Kyokai, such as cracks in ship bottom transverses due to ship vibration, cracks due to improper local design and excessive corrosions etc. in hull structure, found by ship surveyors on occasion of annual surveys are analysed statistically and their occurrences are approximated by series of Weibull's distribution functions. This report presents a statistical theory of predicting the occurrences of failures in ships of several types and ages under an assumption of two probability density functions which have been obtained from the failure databank, i. e., an exponential distribution indicating the number of failed structural components in individual ship and a function indicating distribution of failures in the fleet. The predicted number of failures to be found by annual surveys are compared with observation in actual ships in cases of failures caused by vibration, improper local design, mishandling of cargo gear and heavy corrosions, respectively. Furthermore, a method of prediction of the rate of scrapped ships due to excessive corrosion in a fleet is proposed in this paper.
社団法人日本船舶海洋工学会の論文