中国における食物の需給予測

概要

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Food demand and supply in China was inferred at the year of 2000, 2005 and 2010 in relation to three basic nutritional factors : calory, protein and fat which were divided into animal and vegetable origin. Food demand was estimated as the product of population (median variant projection by U.N.) and food consumption per capita (two cases were hypothesized). For food supply, crop and livestock were major target under consideration. Crop supply was estimated as the product of cultivated acreage (hypothesized to decrease at the statu quo rate) and production per unit area (two cases of increase rates were hypothesized). Livestock supply was estimated on the basis of percentage consumed as feed (three cases were hypothesized) of whole supply of crop. The study of food supply-demand balance for the period, in which 12 case combinations were hypothesized, manifested the results as follows : (1) Rapid transition of Chinese food comsumption pattern (from traditional crop and vegetableoriented to westernized meat-oriented) is difficult to realize. (2) Supposing present status of Chinese diet remains unchanged, it is presumably possible to meet the food demand. (3) Even so, if enhanced productivity can not be expected in the future, food crisis might appear when population growth and decrease of cultivated acreage were taken into account.
日本民族衛生学会の論文