地震動強さの空間相関を考慮した2地点確率論的地震危険度解析の試み

概要

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Seismic hazard analyses are commonly used not only for the design of buildings but also for risk management of private enterprises, disaster mitigation planning for local areas, and estimation of seismic insurance premium. When the probabilistic approach is used, the spatial correlation of seismic intensities at two sites has not been considered. On the contrary when a scenario earthquake is deterministically assumed with a certain occurrence probability, the distribution of seismic intensity is a fully correlated one if the distance attenuation is deterministically given. In this paper we first discuss the correlation of seismic intensities at two sites by considering the random nature of earthquake magnitude and the distance attenuation. Then a bi-variate extreme value distribution is applied by approximating simulated marginal probability distributions for several cases. Its consistency and usefulness are discussed for further applications of proposed analytical approach.
一般社団法人日本建築学会の論文
2003-03-20