ベイジアンネットワークを適用した漁船と大型船の衝突海難のリスク解析に関する研究

概要

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In this paper, an analytical methodology of risk assessment is proposed according to the guidelines for FSA (Formal Safety Assessment) approved by IMO. And the collision accidents between fishing vessels and cargo vessels, having their high frequency and their enormous damages, are taken as analytical application. Especially in the process of risk analysis, Bayesian network theory has been applied to clarify a causal relationship. And in the process of evaluation of RCO (Risk Control Option), evaluation methodology which is applied Bayesian network theory are created. And, trial evaluation of RCOs for collision between fishing vessel and cargo vessel are attempted through calculating of dominance index which is defined to evaluate an effectiveness of RCO against this type of accident. Furthermore, trial cost benefit analysis for RCOs are considered through GCAF (Gross Cost of Averting Fatality) in FSA.
2012-09-25