状態推移を考慮したEvent Tree解析による海洋事故分析

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With lowering in the technical ability of ship operators without enough navigation training to achieve low transportation cost, the marine accidents such as ship collisions, running aground or ship fires also trend to increase gradually in recent years. It may be considerably difficult to establish the methodology for a safety measures system by originating in human errors without a stereotyped way. The methodology for the risk assessment is desired highly to establish to prevent from occurring marine accidents based on human factors. Therefore, suitable safety measures have properly to be taken to cope with operator's behavior based on psychological intelligence process along the state-transition during operating a man-machine system, such as a ship maneuvering apparatus. A transitional series analysis is contrived herein with the aim of the risk assessment for occurring marine accidents and the evaluation on effectiveness of preventive measures. This proposed method is divided into two ways; 1) the qualitative state-transition analysis based on actual accident incidences using Variation tree method combining with Fault Tree Method, and 2) the quantitative time series analysis using the extend Event Tree Method, considering the dependence degree between an individual event and succeeding events, and the recovery coefficient in which the effect of an earlier event decreases the heading event incidence as time proceeds. For an example of typical marine accidents, the estimation of the probability of ship's running aground is carried out by way of experiment, and the proposed method is made sure of its validity.
社団法人日本船舶海洋工学会の論文
2005-03-20

状態推移を考慮したEvent Tree解析による海洋事故分析

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