人的過誤に基づく海洋事故の状態遷移と安全対策について

概要

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With lowering in the technical ability of ship operators without enough navigation training to achieve low transportation cost, the marine accidents such as collisions, running aground or ship fires also tends to increase gradually. It may be considerably difficult to establish the safety measures system for accidents originating from various kinds of human factors. The suitable safety measures have to be taken to cope with the relation between the stress degree of operators and the incident probability of human errors. The development of a methods for the reliability and risk assessment to prevent marine accidents based on human factors is becoming highly desirable in recent years. This paper consists of (1) the estimation of accident incidence probability based on the fault tree analysis, (2) the analysis of stochastic state-transition by Markov chains as a stochastic process model and (3) the prediction of effectiveness to reduce the risk by suitable countermeasures in specified functional system. As a practical example, the reliability and stochastic state-transition analyses for preventing from "the ship collision" are investigated using the proposed method.
2000-09-04