新世代船舶非損傷時復原性基準の構築を目指して(<特集>海上安全の今)

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For developing new generation intact stability criteria at the IMO, this paper reviews physics-based stability assessment techniques proposed by the author and his colleagues so far. These techniques are methods for calculating annual stability failure probability for ships in the North Atlantic. The major failure modes identified by the IMO are covered by different methods. For pure loss of stability in following waves, a direct stability calculation method and the Monte Carlo simulation method with a surge-roll coupled model were developed and a good agreement between the two was confirmed. For parametric rolling, a well-validated heave-pitch-roll coupled model is proposed to be used for calculating the expected number of lost containers per voyage. For broaching, a combination of deterministic dynamics using a coupled surge-sway-yaw-roll model in regular waves and a probabilistic wave theory allows us to calculate failure probability in irregular waves and was well validated with the Monte Carlo simulation in irregular waves. For stability under dead ship condition, a method for calculating stability failure probability in irregular beam wind and waves was developed with a piece-wise linear approximation and was well validated with the Monte Carlo simulation. These methods could be used as candidates of the third level criteria, i.e. direct stability assessment methods, within the scheme of the IMO new generation intact stability criteria. They, however, require certain time and human resources so that it is essential for developing the first and second level vulnerability criteria, which could exempt the application of the third level criteria, as well. Thus the development of such vulnerability criteria is a high-priority task at the current correspondence group established by the IMO, and the draft third level criteria described here has crucial roles for properly adjusting the safety levels of the first and second level criteria, such as equivalent regular waves.
2010-09-30

新世代船舶非損傷時復原性基準の構築を目指して(<特集>海上安全の今)

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