海上交通事故の確率と危険度

概要

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Study was made for further investigation of collisions and groundings in major channels and ports in Japan based on the current reports of marine traffic accidents in five years from 1978 to 1982. The probability of traffic accident, P, is calculated as the ratio of the number of accidents, N, to the number of geometrical accidents, Ng. The results of study give following values, LogP=-4.3±0.4 for collision of vessels in head-on encounter, LogP=-4.0±0.4 for collision of vessels in overtaking encounter and LogP=-3.8±0.3 for grounding. These values are similar to those obtained in former investigations in Europe and Japan. The risk of traffic accidents, R, is defined here as the ratio of the number of traffic accidents, N, to the traffic quantity, Q. The results show considerably large decrease in the collision risk in ports compared with those in the period from 1973 to 1975. The collision risks in major channels have also shown considerably large decrease, most of which lies in 1960's and little in 1970's. This might be the fruit of Marine Traffic Safety Law established in 1972.
社団法人日本航海学会の論文
1985-09-20