降水の時間集中度に基づく結合確率分布モデルの実用性について

概要

論文の詳細を見る
In this paper, the authors propose an empirical formula to estimate the joint nondimensional return period of 24-hour and 1-hour precipitation based on the results of numerical experiments conducted for the joint probability distribution model proposed in the previous paper and also define an index to represent the joint scale of a heavy rainfall. Given a fixed design 1-hour rainfall R_<1h>, it is possible to estimate a duration to be used in composing the index equivalent to the joint scale index. Relations between the scale index and the duration are given by a single-valued function for a fixed design R_<1h>. The duration should be equivalent to the drainage pump operation time. It was verified that the duration was almost equivalent to the real pump operation time for the drainage systems in Kochi city. An increasing long-term trend of the joint scale of heavy rainfalls in Japan was verified using the averaged value of the top ten of the joint scale index estimated by AMeDAS hourly rainfall data for each year from 1976 to 2003.
日本自然災害学会の論文
2005-11-30