降水の時間集中度の確率分布モデルとその1998年高知豪雨・2000年東海豪雨への適用

概要

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In this study, we presented new equations to estimate the occurrence probability of the maximum 1 hour rainfall (R_<1h>) included in the maximum 24 hour rainfall (R_<24h>) in a ten days, based on a probability distribution model of the temporal concentration degree of precipitation. As well, we postulated an equation form of a joint distribution of R_<24h> and R_<1h> and estimated their joint probability of exceedance by a numerical experiment. Then, it is found that the two variables became almost independent each other, when their joint probability of exceedance was calculated to satisfy these equations. By applying these equations and carrying out a numerical experiment to the heavy rainfalls for many rain gauge stations in Kochi in 1998 and Tokai in 2000, each two and their joint exceedance probabilities in the form of the inverse, which we call non-dimensional return period, were estimated.
2004-11-30