ベイジアン解析と信頼度効用関数の導入による信頼性実証試験の最適化

概要

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An optimization method of the proof test loading factor is described. The decision of an optimum load factor under the consideration of prior test results was made by using the Bayesian analysis. Moreover,the consideration of prior test results was made by introduced,so that the present optimization method became similar to the Bayesian decision making procedure defined as the maximization of expected utility. The initial conditions used were the prior distribution A^0(μ) of mean value μ, the coefficient of variation COV of the strength distribution which was assumed to be the normal distribution,and the degree of belief R_<coeff> used to evaluate the Bayesian analysis. As the result of the numerical calculation, it was concluded that the effective estimation of the reliability could be performed based on the test results using the optimum loading factor obtained by the present method.
1986-12-15