北極圏からみた気候変動

概要

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The Arctic Oscillation (AO; Northern hemisphere annular mode), which is the most dominant mode of climate variability in the Northern extratropics, is reviewed. The AO is a seesaw pattern between the Arctic region and the mid-latitude regions. It is an atmospheric internal mode caused by interaction between mean flows and eddies. In winter, it extends to the stratosphere, and the tropospheric AO interacts with the stratospheric AO. Since the mid-20th century, the AO has shown an increasing trend in winter and summer. Climate models predict a future positive trend due to global warming. Recent sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean is also discussed. The decline of the Arctic sea ice cover in late summer has accelerated recently and a record-low ice cover was observed in September 2007. The rate of decrease is much faster than climate model predictions, and it might pass a tipping point.
2008-12-25