Long-term forecast of large earthquakes on active faults in Japan: estimation of earthquake frequency
スポンサーリンク
概要
- 論文の詳細を見る
A comparison of frequencies of large earthquakes between the observed and expected on the major active faults in Japan may suggest some underestimation of the occurrence rate of large events by the long-term earthquake forecasts. The main cause was thought to be the forecasts often anticipate a single large earthquake on a long fault zone, without assuming smaller earthquakes on segmented zones. However, the principal factor of the likely underestimation is that those events without enough evidence on fault zones cannot be evaluated by a trench excavation survey. Historical records show poor or no seismic surface rupture associated with a large earthquake with magnitude around 7 on some of the major fault zones.<BR>Recent improvements on interpreting aerial photographs have brought a detailed pattern of active faults and fault segments. Together with information on underground structures obtained from geological and gravity anomaly maps, the detailed feature of active faults may enable us to decipher behavioral fault segments without solely relying on paleoseismic records.<BR>Except for volcanic areas a short active fault on the surface should have a longer subsurface fault length within the earth's crust. The magnitude of earthquakes on such a fault is 6.9 or larger on JMA scale. This inference is based on reports on surface ruptures associated with large shallow crustal earthquakes in Japan. Only the 1945 Mikawa earthquake with magnitude 6.8 appears to be an exception to that no prominent surface rupture appears associated with earthquakes with magnitude 6.8 or smaller.
- Japanese Society for Active Fault Studiesの論文
著者
関連論文
- P23. 東北地方三陸海岸における津波堆積物調査(一般調査,地質構造,ポスターセッション)
- 博多湾における警固断層の活動履歴
- P-230 大分県南部龍神池の大規模南海地震イベント(27.第四紀地質,口頭およびポスター発表,一般講演)
- 20046 地震ハザードマップと歴史地震資料に基づく最大震度マップの比較(地震ハザード,構造I)
- 震度やマグニチュードを使わない地震の表現を
- 会長就任にあたって
- 震度データトモグラフィによる日本列島下の三次元減衰構造および広域震度予測
- 2070 震度データによる三次元減衰構造の検討
- 地震展
- 丹那断層の過去3,000年間の活動履歴と単位変位量 : 田代地区における3Dトレンチ・Geoslicer調査
- 丹那断層の過去3000年間の活動履歴とnon-characteristic behavior
- 歴史地震と起震断層との対応
- 3Dトレンチ・ジオスライサー調査により明らかにされた丹那断層の横ずれ単位変位量
- 活断層で起きた歴史地震の大きさ
- 活断層における大地震発生確率ランクの推定手法
- 21086 仮想陸域地震とその地震動評価 : その1 : 仮想長野県地震の場合
- 未固結堆積物の定方位連続地層採取方法の開発とその応用
- 地震発生のメカニズムと予測 : 1. 講座をはじめるにあたって
- 断層解剖計画 : 注水試験
- 旧江戸川河底の地震イベント
- 90. 高分解能音波探査により見いだされた別府湾南西部の泥火山分布と構造
- 伊予灘北東部における中央構造線海底活断層の完新世活動
- 別府湾北西部の海底活断層 : 浅海底活断層調査の新手法とその成果
- 地層抜取り装置による軟弱地盤における定方位連続地層採取方法
- Slip rates on the Kamishiro active fault along the northern part of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line, detected by long geo-slicer and drilling
- A Report on a Submarine Active Fault (KANEDAWAN Fault) in Kaneda Bay off the Southeastern Miura Peninsula, Central Japan
- 地震予知の精度と研究の現状 (地震予知とその対策)
- A preliminary report on the drilling project of submarine active faults beneath Beppu Bay:Southwest Japan, for longterm earthquake prediction
- Active Faults in Lake Tahoe, Western Part of the United States.:a Preliminary Report
- Long-term forecast of large earthquakes on active faults in Japan: estimation of earthquake frequency