日本における結核症まん延のシステム分析

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If it is possible to estimate the future epidemiological trends and features of tuberculosis and to evaluate tuberculosis control programmes in the past, it will be very helpful to select the most effective control programmes against tuberculosis and to establish the best way for eradication of tuberculosis.<BR>We tried to resolve this problem by simulation analysis using the epidemetric model of tuberculosis.<BR>Waaler constructed a beautiful mathematical model of tuberculosis by which it is possible to simulate a variety of epidemiological situations of tuberculosis and antituberculosis programmes. This model is so constructed technically that it lends itself to rapid solutions by computer.<BR>Waaler model was modified to be able to input the parameters we have had, as s hown in Fig.1. The population has been divided into 6 groups, that is, i) Non-infected, ii) BCGprotected, iii) Infected <5 years, iv) Infected >5 years, Inactive and Healed cases, v) Active case with cavity, vi) Active case without cavity. The transfer events between each subgroup are indicated by inter-connecting arrows in Fig.1. Various parameters used in the model were determined and estimated from the available data such as the results of nation-wide tuberculosis prevalence surveys and their follow-up studies, and vital statistics in Japan. The results of several epidemiological studies on tuberculosis were referred.<BR>All epidemiological flows over time take place simultaneously with the aging of the population quinquenially. It is programmed for an electronic computer, as flow chart and equations are shown in Fig.2 and Table 1.
日本結核病学会の論文

日本における結核症まん延のシステム分析

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