海外の日本評と日本の長期経済展望

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概要

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• The general election on September 11 was the fourth since the adoption of the current electoral system for the House of Representatives, which combines single-seat districts with seats filled by proportional representation, in 1994. The year before that, when the final election under the old system resulted in the ousting of the Liberal Democratic Party from power for the first time since its formation in 1955, people proclaimed the demise of the "1955 setup." At that point it seemed that the advocates of small government had taken the upper hand. But the LDP was back in power less than a year later, and in the context of the prolonged economic slump during the 1990s, the government grew bigger, budget deficits swelled, and reform of the public sector was put off. Meanwhile, over the years of sluggish growth, companies became more sensitive to the price mechanism, and they worked at slashing costs, creating new business models, and coping with the wave of globalization. These efforts eventually paid off in a number of ways, including an expansion of exports to China, and for over two years now, the economy has been staging a comeback. During the recent election campaign the stock market even managed to register transaction volumes larger than the record set back in the heady days of the bubble economy. The tale told by the latest macroeconomic indicators is that the economy is back on its feet and has returned to the growth path. Despite the uncertainty from rising oil prices, executives are becoming increasingly upbeat about the prospects for their companies, as recently confirmed by the results of the September tankan, the quarterly survey of business confidence conducted by the Bank of Japan. Employment conditions are also on the mend, and firms reporting a shortage of workers are on the increase. Evidently the private sector has overcome the negative legacy of the 1990s and is blazing a new growth trail. In 1989, as Japan's economic bubbles were approaching the bursting point, the Economist's Bill Emmott wrote a book titled The Sun Also Sets, warning of the limits to the country's seemingly unstoppable rise. Now, in the magazine's October 8 issue, we find the same Bill Emmott writing a feature article titled "The Sun Also Rises." And this time he is optimistic about the Japanese economy's prospects over the years to come.

• 麗澤大学の論文

著者

• 成相 修

  麗澤大学

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