状態遷移確率モデルを用いた延焼危険度の変化傾向の分析

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The aim of this study is to understand changes of fire-prevention performance using transition probability matrices of building use and structure. To this end, transition probability matrices of buildings structures were constructed by comparing data at two different observation times (1991 and 1996). And fire-spreading velocity ratios of converged situation were estimated using eigenvectors of transition probability matrices when the eigenvalue was one. By comparing the estimated ratio with ratio of the situation at 1996, the areas where danger of fire-spreading will increase were detected and the tendencies of their distribution were discussed. Prom above results, targeted area was divided into 3 groups such as increase or decrease or constant. And the tendencies of situation transition of buildings structures and uses were discussed.
2007-02-28