中東諸国における権威主義体制の頑健性 : 体制変動への経路依存性アプローチによる考察

概要

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The rentier state theory gives us the best explanation about a success of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East. Some theorists extend it to non oil-producing countries, like Jordan or Syria, which had gotten workers remittance or official development assistance as a rent. So they can survive their own regime as semi rentier states.　However, we should not do this easy theoretical extension. Instead we would get lots of good implications from another approach. The purpose of this paper is to build the formal model of sub categories for authoritarian regime, then to do a positive analysis. I adapt Survival Analysis as the numerical method in the paper. The analysis gives three results to us; (1) higher economic growth stabilize authoritarian regime, (2) oil rent contributes to survivability of regimes, especially monarchies, (3) both monarchies and mixed regime of personal-military-party are stronger than other type of authoritarian regime.
山形大学の論文
2006-07-31