電磁気的前兆現象の点過程解析

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On the basis of theory of information and statistics, a point process analysis was made for the seismo-electric precursor signals observed in Greece. Analyzed seismo-electric signals are those obtained in Greece from January 1990 to May 1992, and earthquakes are of magnitude greater than 4.8. The Laguerre type polynomial was used for expressing the hazard function because it can include causality relations and the time delay as well as the decaying character of the hazard functions. Moreover, the Laguerre type polynomials is very convenient for expressing the log likelihood. The following four models were tested : 1. point process of earthquakes is completely random, 2. earthquakes are self-exciting process and there is no causality relations between seismo-electric signals and earthquakes, 3. the seismo-electric signal triggers earthquakes, and thus the former is the precursor of the latter, 4. the point process of earthquakes is both self-exciting and triggered by seismo-electric signals. Then the causality relationship between seismo-electric signals and earthquakes were exchanged and the above four models are also tested. Models were compared by means of AIC. The model that assumes seismo-electric signals as earthquake precursors gives the best-fit to the data. This conclusion is opposite to that of Mulargia and Gasperini (1993) in which they concluded that seismo-electric signals appeared by chance and did not have any causality relations between earthquakes.
1995-03-31

電磁気的前兆現象の点過程解析

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