地球温暖化リスク管理に関する国際制度シミュレーション(<小特集>環境問題とシミュレーション技術)

概要

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The Kyoto Protocol will possibly be ratified by the next year. Then, one of the most important topics would be the long-term climate regime design issue for mitigating the climate change. In this report, I propose a new international research project "Carbon Management Research Activity (CMRA)" on the climate regime such as international emission treading and compliance issues. The objective of this research project is to come up with the knowledge which will contribute to the international climate regime formation. Agent-based simulation approaches play an important role in the process to analyze the international regime, which will be formed based on the competition and cooperation between the heterogeneous agents. Although there is a lot of uncertainties remaining regarding the scientific knowledge on the climate change, it is extremely important to establish a climate change risk management strategy based on so called "Precautionary Principle". tn this report, a new adaptive risk management approach is also proposed, which considers various scientific uncertainties regarding climate change.
日本シミュレーション学会の論文
2002-03-15