ロジットモデルを用いた運輸部門のCO_2排出量低減策の分析

概要

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Nowadays, energy consumption and the carbon dioxide emission are increasing rapidly, so that climate change caused by the greenhouse effect is becoming a serious problem. Since energy consumption in the transportation sector occupies about 18% in Japan, we have to take some measures in this sector to mitigate climate change. In Japan, the improvement of fuel economy and the spread of alternative fuel vehicles are expected, although there are technical, economical and institutional problems. In this analysis, we investigate how much carbon dioxide emission can be reduced in the transportation sector with appropriate economic incentives. For the purpose, we developed the logit-model to estimate share of various vehicles, and to assess the reduction potential of carbon dioxide emission in the future. We concluded if the share will be occupied only by gasoline vehicles, the effect of carbon tax is not remarkable in spite of the economic burden. But if the share will be occupied by gasoline vehicles and alternative fuel vehicles, we can reduce carbon dioxide emission without the economic burden.
1996-06-15