津波避難数値シミュレーション法の開発と北海道奥尻島青苗地区への適用

概要

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A well-designed system for evacuations after warning issues is essentially necessary to reduce human loss. A lack of tools to evaluate an evacuation system lets such problem remain for long time. The objective of the present study is to develop the evacuation model simulating the behavior of human and vehicle by using the network model in the case of a tsunami attack. One of important functions in the model is to include route self-selecting/alternative model at several crossings by interacting and compiling human behaviors and tsunami impact, road condition, and people recognition of geometry. And walking and vehicle speed with function of density and condition on a road can be also included into a model. The validity of the model is examined in the case of the 1993 Hokkaido nansei-oki tsunami at the Aonae area, Okushiri, Hokkaido. The number of survivors and casualties estimated by the model shows good agreement with the reported and the main routes for evacuation to the hill simulated by the model are same as those by the eyewitness accounts.
2001-08-31