地殻活動予測シュミレーションと地殻変動データ同化

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Data assimilation is indispensable to numerical simulations of crustal activities if one intends to make a forecast or a prediction. However, compared to meteorological data, an assimilation of crustal activity data is difficult because of the limited availability of observation data and the lack of theoretical models connecting observation data and model parameters. In addition, various phenomena, from long-term tectonic loading process to very short acceleration process toward a final fault rupture, need to be simulated in a crustal activity forecast, which makes simulation as well as data assimilation very difficult. Among the various observation data, only crustal deformation data can now be assimilated into crustal activity simulations. The recent development of a continuous GPS network in Japan provides us with a good opportunity to start crustal activity simulations with data assimilation. For that purpose, two methods of assimilating crustal deformation data are presented and discussed. One estimates displacement data at any point and at any time based on a limited amount of geodetic data, which will be useful for simulations using the finite element method. The other assimilation method estimates spatio-temporal distribution of fault slips from geodetic data. Incorporation of viscoelasitc responses of the Earth is necessary for the practical application of this method. By applying these methods with some modification, we can supply initial and boundary conditions to numerical simulations. Consecutive assimilation of crustal deformation data is essential for such simulations so that the calculation always mimics the real crustal activity and the model forecast is meaningful.

著者

鷺谷威
国土地理院

地殻活動予測シュミレーションと地殻変動データ同化

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