Mathematical Simulation for Estimating Reduction of Breast Cancer Mortality in Mass Screening Using Mammography.
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概要
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In Japan it is considered that mammography should be introduced with physical examination for the mass screening of breast cancer instead of physical examination alone, which is performed at present. Before the introduction of mammography, a mathematical simulation should be performed to show the reduction in breast cancer mortality by mass screening compared with an unscreened population. A mathematical model of cancer screening devised by the authors was used to estimate the number of deaths due to breast cancer (A) in the screened group and those (B) in the unscreened group within the same population. Then the relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (RD) were calculated as (A/B) and (B-A) respectively. Three methods of mass screening were compared : (1) physical examination (1-year interval), (2) mammography with physical examination (1-year interval), (3) mammography with physical examination (2-year interval). The calculated RR values were 0.85 for (1), 0.60 for (2) and 0.69 for (3). Assuming that the incidence of breast cancer was 100/105 person-years, the calculated RD values were 3.0, 8.1 and 6.2 persons/105 person-years for (1), (2) and (3), respectively. The 95% confidence interval of RR for three methods was over 1.0, and thus the reduction of breast cancer mortality was not statistically significant in the present population. In conclusion, mammography with physical examination may reduce breast cancer mortality in comparison with physical examination alone, but a larger number of women must be screened in order to obtain a significant RR value.
- 日本乳癌検診学会の論文
日本乳癌検診学会 | 論文
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- Evaluation of Mass Screening for Breast Cancer Conducted under the Health and Medical Service Law for the Elderly and the Actual Conditions of Health Insurance Administration in Zentsuji City.
- Two Cases of Mucinous Carcinoma of the Breast Manifested as Interval Cancer.
- Breast-Conserving Therapy for Breast Cancer Patients Showing Mammographic Evidence of Calcification.
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