広域多地点における日射変動の独立性を考慮した平均日射変動特性の評価

概要

論文の詳細を見る
Power output fluctuation of photovoltaic power generation systems (PVSs) of high penetration may cause negative impact on the load frequency control (LFC) of existing electric power utility. For the cost-effective mitigation, the proper evaluation of power output fluctuation of PVSs dispersed in large-area is very important. Based on the independence in insolation fluctuation among various points, this paper discusses the practical usability of the standard deviation (STD) of total power output fluctuation of PVSs simply calculated as 1/√N value of STD at the representative point. The statistical evaluation using the insolation observed at 5 points within 25km × 25km reveals that STD with simplified calculation would be useful to evaluate STD of ensemble average of insolation on average for a certain period. Besides, the probability density of STD with simplified calculation is almost the same with that of STD of ensemble average for the period with large STD. As a result, the simplified calculation of STD would be useful for the stochastic evaluation of STD of ensemble average insolation among area at least 25km × 25km.