一般廃棄物サーマルリサイクルの導入効果に関する統計的評価モデルの構築

概要

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For the effective utilization of municipal solid waste (MSW) through a thermal recycling, new technologies, such as an incineration plant using a Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell (MCFC), are being developed. The impact of new technologies should be evaluated statistically for various municipalities, so that the target of technological development or potential cost reduction due to the increased cumulative number of installed system can be discussed. For this purpose, we developed a model for discussing the impact of new technologies, where a statistical mesh data set was utilized to estimate the heat demand around the incineration plant. This paper examines a case study by using a developed model, where a conventional type and a MCFC type MSW incineration plant is compared in terms of the reduction in primary energy and the revenue by both electricity and heat supply. Based on the difference in annual revenue, we calculate the allowable investment in MCFC-type MSW incineration plant in addition to conventional plant. The results suggest that allowable investment can be about 30 millions yen/(t/day) in small municipalities, while it is only 10 millions yen/(t/day) in large municipalities. The sensitive analysis shows the model can be useful for discussing the difference of impact of material recycling of plastics on thermal recycling technologies.