中国における豚肉生産の拡大が飼料用トウモロコシ需要に及ぼす影響
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概要
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小泉（2007），大賀他（2009），農林水産政策研究所（2010）などによる既存研究では，中国養豚業の規模別飼料利用構造を考慮せず，平均的な飼料用トウモロコシの弾力性を計測した．本研究では，既存の研究と異なり，中国養豚業の規模別飼料利用構造を考慮した上で，豚肉生産の拡大が飼料用トウモロコシの需要に与える影響を定量的に明らかにした．その結果，計測された飼料用トウモロコシの需要弾力性は，豚肉生産量に対する値が従来の研究に比べて遥に大きいものとなった．つまり，豚肉生産量が1%拡大すれば，飼料用トウモロコシの需要量は0.904%増加する．同時に，豚肉生産量は有意水準1%で有意であった．さらに，トウモロコシ対コムギの価格比の飼料用需要弾力性は0.360で，有意水準10%で有意であった．Previous studies such as Koizumi (2007), Ohga et al. (2009) and MAFF Policy Res. Inst. (2010) appear not to have enough data base to incorporate the exact amount of corn fed to pork. Accordingly, they may have under-estimated their demand elasticity for corn to feed. In this research, concentrating on large scale pork producing farms which mainly use corn for feeding, a large demand elasticity for corn at 0.904 was found with a 1% significance level. This may explain more realistic situation that has been going on in Chinese pork industry. Price elasticity for corn relative to wheat was also estimated at -0.360 with a 10% significance level for the large scale pork production indicating that price ratio between corn and wheat is critical.
- 2014-02-28
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