Grain Price Transmission from International Markets to Chinese Domestic Markets

概要

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After joining WTO, Chinese agricultural commodities linked more and more with the international markets. This study evaluated the grain price translation from the international grain markets to Chinese grain markets. The result of ADF test for grain prices in China and the US, which reports that all of the weekly grain prices in these two markets belong to I (1) and a long–run integration between the Chinese grain prices and the US grain prices are found in this study. We use the VECM model to find that the estimated error correction term coefficients are –0.04749, –0.002187, –0.0009480, –0.005806 and –0.004652 for soybeans, wheat, corn, indica rice and japonica rice, respectively. In addition, the volatility for the US' soybeans prices can Granger–cause the Chinese soybeans prices fluctuated. And the impulse response function Chinese grain prices response immediately to its own standard deviation innovation and the impact from the international markets is more significant for soybeans. The US's soybeans and corn prices show significant effect to its own innovation.
2013-09-00