9.京都が震度V以上の地震に襲われる確率

概要

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The probability of a future earthquake with intensity For more in the Kyoto area was studied using historical data from 599 A.D. to the present. Following Kawasumi's method, the periodicity with 38.5 year period was detected. Ogawara's method was also examined. Stationary random process was found to be acceptable. Assuming that the two characteristics, namely, the periodicity with 38.5 year period and stationary randomness are intrinsic to the sequence of big earthquakes in the Kyoto area, a trial is made to find a model of earthquake occurrence satisfying the two characteristics. Among the three models employed the one, in which the number of earthquakes in one period (38.5 year) follows the Poisson's distribution and the probability density of earthquake occurrence in one period follows cosine law (see equation (1)), satisfies the two characteristics.
1971-09-30