前期移行経済 : エジプト国の民営化と民間投資

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The definition of a transition economy, as adopted by the IMF and the World Bank group, is properly applied only to the economies of those countries which have been compelled by circumstances to transform their economic and social structures away from those of centrally-planned economies, toward more market-oriented and liberal systems. In particular it applies to the period since about 1990, when the strategy of emulating collectivism on the model of the former USSR has generally been found nuviable. This author has had the opprtunity of consultation and correspondence with several responsible officials of countries which have formerly been members of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA; often popularly called "COMECON" in certain non-member countries). These exchanges have led him to doubt the efficiency, or indeed even the practical possibility, of carring through the so-called "Big Bang" transformation policies often recommended to such countries by the World Bank group. The object of the present study is Egypt, which is not a former CMEA country, and there exist some substantial and deeply-rooted differences between its initial conditions for transformation, and these prevailing in the former CMEA group. Nevertheless it is found that many economic policies and measures similar to those prescribed for the CMEA, have also recommended or almost forced upon Egypt by the same international monetary and financial organizations. The present study retraces the main features of the economic development process in Egypt, particulary focussing on the subject of privatization, after liberalization policies were adopted around 1978, and up to the present in 1998. Analyzing this evolution, it might be concluded that the parallel processes of privatization, growth of private investment, and formation of market-oriented macro-economic conditions in former socialist countries require a certain period of time to work through to a stable successor system. Egypt, still a developing country, can by now be said to have arrived at the stage of economic liberalism, a hard-won achievement after twenty years of struggle, and this accomplishment is amply evidenced by the new policy declared as the guiding principle of the present five-year plan (1997-2002): "Development by initiative of the private sector." The example of the liberalization process in Egypt cannot be generalized nor wholly applied to the other transition economies, because of differences both in internal traditional elements, and in the external economic and diplomatic environments facing the several transition countries. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that in the next stage of this on-going study, some lessons of broad applicability may emerge from further retrospective examination of economic evolution and privatization methods.
日本福祉大学の論文
1999-02-10

著者

今井正幸
日本福祉大学経済学部

前期移行経済 : エジプト国の民営化と民間投資

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