大正9年1-2月期におけるバブル経済(II)

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In this paper, we deal with the change of real economy and congressional debate concerning to the budget and economic issues in the January and February 1920. The prices of rice and silk which were the main product of the rural sector in those days rose despite the good harvest and stocks piling up. This price hike increased the income of farmers and brought an incredible boom in the rural sector. The price stabilizing policies of the Hara cabinet such as export restriction of cotton yarn were clearly ineffective. The Hara cabinet left the inflation because of political purpose. The inflation gave rise to the trade deficit which flowed gold out. As a result, the risk of price fall and recession reached an alarming level. In the 42th congress, there were issues of budget, income tax increase and inflation. But the ministers held the optimistic prospect that the boom would continue. On the other hand, the prices peaked out and stocks piled up. Mass media recognized these economic changes but they still held the view that prices would fall gradually. This discrepancy between the prospect and reality prepared the collapse of the bubble.
2010-10-25