確率論的安全性評価手法によるタイタニック号事故の解析

概要

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For large and complex systems, full and enough investigation is required not to damage the public or operators, before design, construction and operation. Especially chemical plant, nuclear power plant and ships etc. must not cause any large accidents because of the safety of the public or lots of people working there. So, the new assessment, PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment), becomes popular in addition to deterministic safety assessment for these complex systems. In this paper, as an example of an application of PSA for the marine field, the event tree analysis method was applied to the Titanic accident. Factors which related to the Titanic accident were all selected under the those day's surrounding condition. The occurrence probabilities of the factors have been estimated from various data. The probability that the Titanic encounters the sever accidents, and number of fatality have been calculated. This report has shown the detailed procedure of event tree analysis for a marine accident. It has also shown the effectiveness of event tree analysis for the analysis of accident causes and for the improvement of the safety for various large complex systems.
独立行政法人海上技術安全研究所の論文
2000-05-31