余震発生を考慮した確率論的建物被害評価

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In Japan, buildings are constantly exposed to the earthquake risk. Various researches dealing with the earthquake risk have been undertaken very actively in Japan. Most of these researches, however, focuss on the risk due to main shock while researches treating aftershock risks has been seldom paid attention to so far. Although it is obvious that the major building damage comes from the main shock, it has been reported that some serious building damage occurred due to a series of aftershocks of the Chuetsu earthquake on Oct. 23, 2004 in Niigata area. That is why it is necessary to demonstrate how much the seismic risk increase when taking into consideration of aftershocks. It is assumed that the relationship between the magnitude of aftershocks and the total number of aftershocks can be represented by the Gutenberg-Righter law, and the relationship between the elapsed time after the main shock and the occurrence rate of aftershock follows the modified Omori's law. Using the ground motion attenuation relation together with the above two laws, the ground motion caused by aftershocks can be calculated and then an aftershock hazard can be estimated. In this paper, three damage states of buildings, corresponding to the three modes of an event-tree in the Markov chain, are taken: collapse, half collapse and no damage. Then the seismic risk of aftershocks along with the main-shocks can be evaluated theoretically by use of an event-tree and the Markov chain. The Markov chain is very appropriate because the occurrence rate of aftershocks varies depending upon the elapsed time, and the state of buildings might change due to consecutive occurrence of aftershocks. In some numerical examples, show the important result.
社団法人日本建築学会の論文
2009-03-30

余震発生を考慮した確率論的建物被害評価

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