戦後IMF体制の構造転換 : 通貨危機の発現過程を通じて(第8セッション 国際通貨体制と金融危機,20世紀資本主義-歴史と方法の再検討-,創立五十周年記念大会報告集)
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概要
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The era of the IMF-managed adjustable peg (=fixed exchange rate) came to an end in 1971, as President Nixon abruptly suspended the gold-dollar convertibility. Ever since, the international currency system has been suffering from an unstable floating exchange rate system, going back and forth between the "managed float" and the "free float". The value of the dollar, for the most part of the last quarter century or so, has been on a continual trend of decline. However, the dollar accounts held by international banks and governments have kept on increasing, and the key currency that could substitute for the dollar has not yet emerged. In addition, the cumulative debt problem, which began from the default of Mexico in 1982, escalated into the Asian financial crisis of the latter half in the 1990s. Could there be a rationale behind this recurrence of the financial crises? One interpretation has been offered by S. Strange, and two counter interpretations have appeared : first, the hegemonic power theory by Guilpin, Jr. and second, the marketization theory by the IMF based on neoclassical open macroeconomics. These views are irreconcilable with one another, originating from the different readings of the history and different policy orientations. In order to find the right answer, we propose here to reexamine the historical processes of the I970s. Based on the examination of the primary historical sources such as G10, OECD/WP3, IMF/C20 etc., this paper attempts to analyse the rationale that led to the collapse of the IMF's adjustable peg system, and to clarify what was really at stake among the advanced nations and what options they eventually chose.
- 政治経済学・経済史学会の論文
- 1999-09-30
著者
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