Verification of Typhoon Forecasts for a 20km-mesh High-Resolution Global Model

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概要

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• In this study, twelve tropical storms between 2002 and 2005 over the western North Pacific Ocean, namely, typhoons, were simulated through medium-range forecast experiments with the 20km-mesh Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (JM-AGCM). These simulations were compared with the 60km-mesh JMA Global Spectral Model (GSM) to evaluate differences in resolution. They are verified with the best-track data as an observation. The verification was conducted in terms of estimating error of position, intensifying tendency, radius of 50 knot, 30 knot, and composite wind profile. This paper addresses the importance of such high resolution to predict typhoon's intensity and inner-core structure. As a result, the JM-AGCM shows slightly smaller position error than the GSM. Moreover, much improvement was seen in the intensity prediction. The JM-AGCM outstandingly can both decrease the central sea level pressure and increase maximum wind velocity, while the GSM can not simulate them because of low resolution. The JM-AGCM also shows better intensifying and decaying tendency than the GSM. The verifications of 50 knot and 30 knot radii, and the composite wind profile indicate that the typhoon structure by the JM-AGCM is quite realistic. Moreover, the JM-AGCM expresses the drastic transformation of inner-core wind profile within 100km from the typhoon center more realistically than the GSM. These results indicate that a high resolution global model, such as 20km-mesh, is vital when discussing the intensity and wind profile of tropical storms.

• 社団法人日本気象学会の論文
• 2008-10-25

著者

• NODA Akira

  Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute

• KUSUNOKI Shoji

  Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency

• Kusunoki Shoji

  Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute

• Kusunoki Shoji

  Climate Prediction Dovision Climate And Marine Department Japan Meteorological Agency

• Noda Akira

  Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute:(present Office)global Environment Mod

• Noda Akira

  Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute

• MURAKAMI Hiroyuki

  Advanced Earth Science and Technology Organization (AESTO), Japan Meteorological Agency

• MATSUMURA Takayuki

  Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

• SAKAI Ryota

  Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency

• Sakai Ryota

  Numerical Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency

• Murakami Hiroyuki

  Advanced Earth Science And Technology Organization (aesto) Japan Meteorological Agency:(present Offi

• Murakami Hiroyuki

  Advanced Earth Science And Technology Organization (aesto) Japan Meteorological Agency

• Matsumura Takayuki

  Numerical Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency:(present Office) Administration Division F

• Matsumura Takayuki

  Numerical Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency

• Kusunoki Shoji

  Climate Prediction Division, Climate and Marine Department, Japan Meteorological Agency

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• Simulations of Land-surface Air Temperature and Land Precipitation in the Twentieth Century by the MJ98 AGCM
• Verification of Typhoon Forecasts for a 20km-mesh High-Resolution Global Model
• Global Warming Patterns over the North Pacific : ENSO versus AO
• Atmospheric Seadonal Presictability Experiments by the JMA AGCM
• Development of an Effective Non-Linear Normal-Mode Initialization Method for a High-Resolution Global Model
• Skill Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts by the Atmospheric Seasonal Predictability Experiments

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