Change of Baiu Rain Band in Global Warming Projection by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model with a 20-km Grid Size
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概要
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A global warming projection experiment was conducted on the Earth Simulator using a very high horizontal resolution atmospheric general circulation model, with 20-km grid size (the 20-km model). Such high horizontal resolution in a global climate model is unprecedented for a global warming projection. Experiments using the 20-km model were conducted by adopting the time-slice method, in which future changes in sea surface temperature (SST) were predicted by an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) called MRI-CGCM2.3. The A1B emission scenario, proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was assumed in the experiment. The model reproduces a realistic Baiu rain band under the present-day climate conditions in terms of geographical distribution and northward seasonal march. Experiments of the dependency of the horizontal resolution on the reproducibility of the Baiu rain band have revealed that the 20-km model generally exhibits higher performance than a model with a lower horizontal resolution. The future climate simulation shows that precipitation, and its intensity increases over the Yangtze River valley of China, the East China Sea, Western Japan, and the ocean to the south of the Japan archipelago. Conversely, precipitation and its intensity decrease over the Korean peninsula and Northern Japan. The termination of the Baiu season tends to be delayed until August. The future precipitation change is mainly attributable to the change in the horizontal transport of water vapor flux and its convergence associated with the intensification of a subtropical high. This can be interpreted as an atmospheric response to the El Nino condition of the ocean. The change in the wind field mainly contributes to the change in the water vapor flux in the case of the Baiu rain band.
- 社団法人日本気象学会の論文
- 2006-08-25
著者
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Kusunoki Shoji
Meteorological Research Institute
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OOUCHI Kazuyoshi
Advanced Earth Science and Technology Organization
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YOSHIMURA Hiromasa
Meteorological Research Institute
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MIZUTA Ryo
Advanced Earth Science and Technology Organization
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NODA Akira
Meteorological Research Institute
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Noda Akira
Frontier Res. Center For Global Change Japan Agency For Marine-earth Sci. And Technol. Yokohama Jpn
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NODA Akira
Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute
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KUSUNOKI Shoji
Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
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YOSHIMURA Jun
Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
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YOSHIMURA Hiromasa
Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
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YOSHIMURA Jun
Meteorological Research Institute
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Kusunoki Shoji
Climate Prediction Dovision Climate And Marine Department Japan Meteorological Agency
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Noda Akira
Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute
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Oouchi Kazuyoshi
Frontier Res. Center For Global Change Japan Agency For Marine-earth Sci. And Technol.
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Kusunoki Shoji
Climate Prediction Division, Climate and Marine Department, Japan Meteorological Agency
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