Skill Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts by the Atmospheric Seasonal Predictability Experiments

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概要

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• Probabilistic forecast skill of the atmospheric seasonal predictability experiments is evaluated using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), which is a global spectral model of T63 resolution. Four-month ensemble integrations were carried out with nine consecutive days of initial condition preceding the target season. All four seasons in a 15-year period from 1979 to 1993 were chosen as target seasons. The model was forced with observed sea surface temperature (SST) during the time integrations. Probabilistic forecasts of 500 hPa height, 850 hPa temperature and precipitation are verified by four skill measures ; the Brier skill score and its decomposition to reliability and resolution, relative operating characteristics (ROC), ranked probability score (RPS) and rank histogram. It is revealed that probabilistic forecast bears some similarity in the seasonality and regionally of skill, with deterministic forecast such as relatively higher skill in winter of the Northern Hemisphere, and over East Asia and North America. Skill of precipitation is found generally lower than that of 500 hPa height and 850 hPa temperature, as is also recognized for deterministic forecast skill.

• 社団法人日本気象学会の論文
• 2003-02-25

著者

• Kusunoki S

  Japan Meteorological Agency Jpn

• Kusunoki Shoji

  Climate Prediction Dovision Climate And Marine Department Japan Meteorological Agency

• Kobayashi Chiaki

  Climate Prediction Division Climate And Marine Department Japan Meteorological Agency

• KOBAYASHI Chikao

  Climate Prediction Dovision, Climate and Marine Department Japan Meteorological Agency

• Kobayashi C

  Japan Meteorological Agency Tokyo Jpn

• Kusunoki Shoji

  Climate Prediction Division, Climate and Marine Department, Japan Meteorological Agency

関連論文

• Change of Baiu Rain Band in Global Warming Projection by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model with a 20-km Grid Size
• Simulations of Land-surface Air Temperature and Land Precipitation in the Twentieth Century by the MJ98 AGCM
• Verification of Typhoon Forecasts for a 20km-mesh High-Resolution Global Model
• Relation between SSTs and Predictability of Seasonal Mean Precipitation over the Western Tropical Pacific
• Atmospheric Seadonal Presictability Experiments by the JMA AGCM
• Skill Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts by the Atmospheric Seasonal Predictability Experiments

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