Global Warming Patterns over the North Pacific : ENSO versus AO

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概要

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• The relationships between the natural variability and CO_2-induced response over the Pacific region are investigated in terms of the spatial anomaly pattern of SST, sea level pressure and precipitation by a multi-model intercomparison analysis, based on the 18-model results contributing to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The analysis indicates that the CO_2-induced response pattern is related with the model natural variability modes, ENSO and AO. In the tropical Pacific, an ENSO-like global warming pattern is simulated by the majority of the models, with mostly El Nino-like change. In the Arctic region, an AO-like global warming pattern is simulated by many models, with the positive definite AO-phase change, if AO-like. It is suggested that the increase in meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere, and the lower stratosphere, provides a preferable condition for the positive AO-like change in the high latitudes by intensifying the subtropical jet, while the increase in the static stability provides a preferable condition for the El Nino-like change in the low latitudes, by reducing the large-scale ambient circulations. However, the sign of the mass (SLP) anomaly is incompatible over the North Pacific, between the positive AO-like change and the El Nino-like change. As a result, the present models cannot fully determine the relative importance between the mechanisms inducing the positive AO-like change and inducing the ENSO-like change, leading to scattering in global warming patterns in regional scales over the North Pacific.

• 社団法人日本気象学会の論文
• 2006-02-27

著者

• YAMAGUCHI Kazuki

  R&D Center, Tokyo Electric Power Co.

• NODA Akira

  Climate Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute

• Noda Akira

  Climate Research Department Meteorological Research Institute

• Yamaguchi Kazuki

  R&d Center Tokyo Electric Power Co.

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• Global Warming Patterns over the North Pacific : ENSO versus AO

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