林産物世界貿易モデルによる「環境価格」政策の影響分析

概要

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In this paper I analyzed what kind of impact would occur to the production, consumption, export, and import of forest products in each regions in the world by comparative dynamics using modified IIASA Global Trade Model of forest products. I also clarified to what extent the system of environmental pricing will have effect to diminish the degradation of the growing stock of especially tropical forests. The results are mainly as follows. The production of nonconifer sawlog of tropical forests will decrease within 10%. In temperate and boreal zone the effect will be very small. As for the growing stock of tropical regions, in the Base Case the annual decreasing rate of growing stock were 0.16% in Latin America, 0.08% in Africa, 0.48% in Southeast Asia. Considering the damage of surrounding stumpages at the time of harvesting and road construction, each rate were 1.32%. 0.67%, 2.29%. When we carried out the environmental pricing under the very moderate assumption of deforestation, we would be able to sustain the forest stock quantity in Africa and Latin America. But under the assumption of forest degradation counting damage of surrounding stumpages at the time of harvesting and road construction, the annual decreasing rate became 0.97%, 0.48%, 1.98% in each area, Therefore the deforestation would not be stopped by only environmental pricing in all tropical regions.
林業経済学会の論文
1998-03-20