中国WTO加盟の財政へのインパクト(<特集>中国WTO加盟の衝撃)

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概要

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• 1. China has lowered the overall tariff rate to a level below the average of some developing countries, in accordance with China's WTO entry. It is commonly known that as tariff rates are cut, tariff revenue must decrease as well. But on the contrary, revenues in China have been increasing. From 1994 to 2001, the proportion of tariff revenue in total tax revenues has remained nearly stable. We think as tariff quotas lessen, average tariff rates approach effective rates. Therefore, we do not think tariff revenues and the rate of tariff decrease are in the same proportion. 2. Value-added tax is the largest source of tax revenue in China. In the present value-added taxation-at-production system, investments in fixed assets are all taxable, and in the case of certain imported goods, the tariff rates are actually negative. To improve the competitiveness of China's goods, the value-added taxation-at-production system has to be replaced by one of taxation at consumption. 3. The preferential taxation policy for foreign-invested enterprises is most prominent of all the preferential polices on enterprise income tax. But we think such a policy for foreign-invested enterprises is irrelevant to WTO rules. It will unite the income tax of both domestic and overseas enterprises. In order to encourage foreign businesspeople to intensify investments in the central, middle and western regions of China, preferential polices will become indirect taxation. Though it is implemented in the policy on Development of the Middle and Western Regions, because processing and trading enterprises are concentrated in the coastal regions, the tax share of coastal regions will increase further. Therefore, there is a possibility that the economic disparity between inland and coastal areas becoming large. 4. In the tax structure, business tax will lose its position as the key tax as the tax range of business tax decreases. The share of value-added tax and consumption tax will over 65%, as the tax range of value-added tax is extended. Therefore, the share of indirect tax will increase further. Because the income elasticity of indirect tax is lower, there is a possibility that the share (tax/GDP) will be reduced. This must improve the share of direct tax in China. 5. On intergovernmental fiscal relations of the central government and local governments, after China's WTO entry, although tariff income will decrease, the share of central tax will extend as value-added and consumption taxes extend. But value-added and consumption taxes will be sources of tax income for transfer expenditures from the central government to local governments. Eventually this will become a grant to local coffers, therefore, there is a possibility that the share of central revenue will decrease, after redistribution.

• 島根県立大学の論文

著者

• 張 忠任

  島根県立大学総合政策学部・大学院開発研究科

• 西田 小百合

  (財)岡山経済研究所

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