マクロ経済における期待の役割 : 近似合理的期待を考慮したフィリップス曲線に関する考察(浅野雅巳教授・鈴木登教授御退職記念号)

概要

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The purpose of this paper is to explain the role of expectations in macroeconomy by means of the well-known Phillips curve apparatus. That is, the stickiness of inflation rates observed so often in actual economy is investigated within a framework of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC), where near-rationality of expectations as advocated by Akerlof and Yellen (1985) takes place of full rationality. Moreover, applicability of the NKPC model with near-rational expectations to Japanese economy is examined. The paper is made up of the following sections. In section 2, outlines of some basic expectation formation hypotheses and a traditional version of the Phillips curve are presented for reference, and in section 3, arguments on NKPC as theories of forecasting inflations are surveyed. Thus, through these two sections differences of view on the role of expectations between the traditional Phillips curve and NKPC are expounded. Finally in section 4, what kind of models suits Japanese economy is examined, and in conclusion it turned out that there is room of an improvement in applicability at NKPC with near-rationality.