温室効果ガス濃度の安定化と超長期温暖化予測

概要

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The ultimate goal of UNFCCC Article 2 is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent "Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference" (DAI) with climate system. Such a level should be achieved to allow ecosystem to adapt naturally to climate change and to satisfy another conditions. Recently, COP12/MOP2 was held on November 2006 in Nairobi, Kenya for discussion about the Post Kyoto Protocol. However, there is not sufficient scientific information of feasible stabilization levels of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Therefore, we conducted long-term global warming projections of GHG stabilization scenarios based on IPCC emission scenarios using the world fastest supercomputer, the Earth Simulator, in Japan through international research consortium with NCAR and LANL in USA. We show climate changes such as temperature, sea ice in the Arctic region, thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic Ocean and sea levels under the stabilization scenarios to make clear the question; "What is DAI?"
一般社団法人日本エネルギー学会の論文
2007-03-20