雲解像モデルを用いた台風に伴う局地豪雨の量的予測実験 : 2004年10月20日の台風0423号に伴う近畿地方北部の豪雨を例として

概要

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Accurate and quantitative forecast of heavy rainfall is one of the most important problems for disaster prevention of typhoons. A simulation experiment of Typhoon 0423 (Tokage), which landed over Japan on 20 October 2004, was performed using a cloud-resolving numerical model named CReSS (the Cloud Resolving Storm Simulator) with a horizontal resolution of 1km within a large computational domain on the Earth Simulator. The result shows that the typhoon-track, rain distribution and rainfall intensity were quantitatively simulated. The heavy rainfall in the northern Kinki District was simulated successfully. This was associated with the intrusion of the intense upperlevel rainband. The prediction of precipitation by CReSS was compared with JMA surface observations and its accuracy was evaluated statistically using parameters of RMSE, correlation coefficient, threat score, and bias score. The successful results indicate that the cloud-resolving model is useful and effective for the accurate and quantitative prediction of heavy rainfall.
2006-11-30