牛肉経済システムの解析と制御

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To analyze economic systems like the beef economy, explicit attention must be paid to the interdependency of system factors, which is indispensable for a comprehensive investigation of the system. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the posibilities and effects of the price stabilization under the present beef import system. We assume that the beef econmy can be analized within a framework of the multipleinput feedback system where in beef is a basic factor and pork and chicken are substitute factors. We employ two methods: spectral analysis and optimal control model. The spectral analysis, which is a well-known method to analyze cyclical fluctuation, is used to determine the system structure of the beef economy. The optimal control model with "state space representation, " which is a basic theory to analyze the linear systems, is applied to the simulation tests of the system. Results of spectral analysis show that there are definite interdependent fluctuations between factors with time lags. These evidences support the assumption that the beef economy should be regarded as a part of the whole system. The wholesale prices of beef turn out to be the most unstable factor in the meat economy. The quantity of beef import is not always determined by the balance in the supply and demand for beef, and had relatively little influence on price changes. Therefore, the present beef import system did not operate efficiently. Conclusions of the simulation analysis by the optimal control model suggest that the beef price as well as the system of the meat economy itself can be stabilized by the appropriate import policy and that drastic measures such as an embargo on the import of beef would have an adverse effect on stabilization of the meat economy system.
千葉大学の論文
1984-12-25

牛肉経済システムの解析と制御

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