農政の経済効果と石油価格変動 : 農業基本法下のシミュレーション分析

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This paper presents economic effects of government expenditures and financial aid for Japanese agriculture under the price fluctuation of oil in the world by the usage of analytical tool of macroeconometric model. The model adopted in this paper indicates the economic circulation in only agricultural sector, which covers intersectoral relationships between government expenditures, financial aids and other theoretical categories of farmhousehold economy, what is called, production, income, consumption, saving and investment given by individual farmers and other financial agents. Our model used 18 equations is provided by the structure of simultaneous equation system and the parameter of each equation was measured by the technique of two-stage least square method for the materials limmited to the period 1962 to 1979. As the result of simulation test, the fitness of the model adopted to the realities was effective. The economic effects of the government expenditures and financial aids for the capital formation in agriculture were considerably high and such government aid contributed to decrease the number of persons engaged in agriculture through the farm mechanization and to increase the agricultural productivity in Japan. However, the economic effects based uopn the decline of oil price to increase farm income was very high and exceeded positive effects provided by the farm product prices, and especially government extention activities has brought large contribution to income formation in agriculture. Agricultural policies, accordingly, should be careful enough to the economic effects of government expenditures with reference to the extention activities and government control to the rise of domestic oil price in Japan.
北海道大学の論文
1983-12-20

農政の経済効果と石油価格変動 : 農業基本法下のシミュレーション分析

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