最適化エネルギーモデルを用いた対CO_2戦略のためのシミュレーション

概要

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A new global energy model has been built to forecast the build-up of CO_2 in the atmosphere over the period 1990 to 2050 and to assess the anti-CO_2 policies. In the model, a two-level CES production function plays a central role. In this production function, labor, capital stock and energy are considered to be three factors of production. Energy is further disaggregated into oil, gas, coal and nonfossil fuels because of the different substitution effects between any two of them. A submodel was used to forecast the concentration of atomospheric CO_2. A dynamic optimization scheme is then applied to the model to determine the optimum balance between carbondioxide emission and the economic disturbance induced by the anti-CO_2 strategy. Using this model, for any concentration limit on atmospheric CO_2 assumed in the year 2050,the optimal tax level imposed on each kind of fossil-fuel can be obtained and the total energy consumption patterns are determined. The simulation results show that the build-up of CO_2 in the atmophere can be delayed. If for example, through the imposition of proportional taxes on fossil-fuel consumption, the buildup of CO_2 in the atmosphere is delayed by 15 years, then the annual growth rate of world GNP will show a slight decline of 0.03% over the 60 year period, i. e. 1990-2050.
日本シミュレーション学会の論文
1988-03-15