自動車燃料需要のモデル化と将来予測

概要

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A model of energy demands for road vehicles has been developed. Vehicles are classified into 14 types, and a submodel of econometric type has been constructed for each type. Energy demand for each vehicle category is estimated based on the estimates for the number of cars and average run per car per year. For private automobiles a novel equation has been introduced which identifies the relation between actual fuel economy and the standard fuel economy as a function of traffic signal densities. For ordinary trucks it is shown that characteristics of those for private use are essentially the same as those of trucks for professional use, while the characteristics of small trucks are similar to those of private automobiles. Final tests of the entire model have shown high goodness of fit. Given the economic condition and the standard fuel economy of principal vehicles in future, simulation runs of the model provide future scenarios on the structure of fuel demands for road vehicles. Growth rate of gasoline demand will be as an average 1.6% per year by the year 2000 while demand of diesel oil will grow by about 2.7% per year. The difference in growth rates of gasoline and diesel oil may induce drastic change either in investment pattern of oil refineries or in the pricing policy of petroleum products
日本シミュレーション学会の論文
1983-11-15